Has inflation reached a peak? Three signs that prices could soon come down

Hi. Yeah, as we’ve been reporting prices are on fire, the highest inflation since 1981. And groceries are near the top of the list, you’re feeling it, you’re feeling it at the grocery store and you feel helpless. But there is *** way you can beat this record inflation at the grocery store today with prices spiking from the bread aisle to produce two paper goods, experts say there is *** fix buying in bulk and we’re not talking about just going to Costco, you can do it wherever you grocery shop by doing some quick math right in the aisle. What you really want to know is what am I paying for? How much is each item in the package? Right, so you got to do *** little math but it’s actually really easy. Right? So for example strawberry pop tarts, right? There are eight of them in here. Eight in this small little pack, these go for $ 2.18. So what you want to do is do $ 2.18 divided by how many pop tarts? There are eight. And when you do the math calculator, you see that you’re paying 27 cents per pop tart. Ok, That’s what you’re actually paying 27 cents per pop tart. But if you come down here to the the big value pack, right, There are 48 pop tarts in here And this costs $ 10.73. So once again we pull out the calculator boop boop boop boop boop boop right? And we take 1073 Divided by 48 pop tarts. And we get our answer, we only pay 22 cents per pop tart here. five cent difference. Not huge. But that adds up. If your family likes pop tarts, next, do not get stumped by measurements. Not every package has *** certain number of items in it that you can count. Right, cornflakes for example, I’m not going to do the math. How many cornflakes are in here and how much each cornflake costs? We’re going to go by the weight. Right? So there are 9.6 ounces in here. We want to know how much we’re paying per ounce. Right? So these are $ 3.13 for this regular sized cornflakes. Right? So we’re going to take the price $ 3.13 and divided by the number of ounces. Okay, you’re gonna do the same thing right over here, This is the mega size. Look at this. The mega sized cornflakes buying in bulk will get this 1 25.2 ounces. And this one will cost you $ 5.23. So, beep beep beep. We did the math for you. And again, we divided the price by the ounces. You’re paying 12 cents more per ounce when you buy the small 1 12 cents per ounce. It’s a lot. But here’s where we saw the biggest difference. Yeah, this one’s nuts. And we’re over the paper towel. I’ll So, okay, so for this bounty paper towel. Two rolls, two rolls here, going for $ 4. You can see it here, $ 4.87 for the tupac for the bulk right over here. This comes with 12 rolls, 12 rolls in here. Same product, it’s going for $ 20.98. So we did the math For this. You’re paying $ 2.44 per roll. But for the bulk for the bulk, you’re only paying *** $ 75 per roll. That means there is *** 69 cents difference per roll. You know, you’re gonna have to buy more paper towels anyway. So buy in bulk and save *** lot of money. And by the way, if you have the freezer space, you can even buy meat, bread and cheese and bulk. They can last believe it or not, up to three months in the freezer. We’re going to put all of this information and some more helpful tips to save money on groceries on my website. Right now, head over there, Rawson Reports dot com back to you

Has inflation reached a peak? Three signs that prices could soon come down

Inflation is at a 40-year high, and Americans are feeling it.A gallon of gas costs about double what it cost in January 2021. Home prices were up a whopping 19.8% year-over-year in February. And, in March, groceries cost 10% more than they did a year earlier.Thankfully some analysts think that the burden could soon ease, and that we’ve reached an inflationary top.This week, the Federal Reserve will meet and likely announce plans to raise interest rates, a tool used to combat rampant inflation. However, investors fear that accelerating the pace of interest rate hikes could drag the economy into recession. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial, thinks it’s likely that inflation has already reached a peak on its own, and that the Fed could start to pull back on interest rates by the second half of the year.The core personal consumption expenditures index, which the Federal Reserve closely watches to measure the price of goods and services, grew by 5.2% in March, excluding food and energy prices, coming in below economists’ expectations and falling on a monthly basis for the first time since October 2020. Detrick points to three key economic indicators for that belief: a drop in used car prices, a lack of “sticky” inflation, and a relative easing in supply chain chaos (though China’s COVID-related shutdowns could put an end to that) .The chip shortage caused by supply chain kinks and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has made getting a new car very difficult, and the prices of used cars and trucks have correspondingly soared. In February, the price of a used car was up about 45% year-over-year, according to the Manheim Used Car Value Index. But it has since come down to about 25%. Two months of declines show that the prices of used cars, which make up 4% of the consumer price index, could finally be reverting back to pre-pandemic levels.The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta breaks inflation into two categories: sticky and flexible. Sticky inflation is a basket of goods that tends to change more slowly and permanently in price, things like the cost of education, public transportation and motor vehicle insurance. Flexible inflation includes items that move up and down in cost more quickly: gas, clothing, milk and cheese.During the stagflation of the 1970s, both sticky and flexible inflation grew. But so far sticky inflation has remained relatively flat compared to flexible inflation, a good sign that this could still be temporary.Of course, it could take some time for sticky inflation to play catch up, but Detrick says he’s optimistic. Flexible inflation is like a rubber band, he said, you can stretch it pretty far and it will still snap back.And although shutdowns in China could hurt the global supply chain, it does appear that problems are easing – at least for now. If businesses can easily obtain more supplies, the prices of materials go down and consumers will not be charged as much for goods and services, said Detrick.Shipping rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles, New York and Rotterdam are down 28% on average from the peak last year, according to LPL Financial’s data. Schedule reliability for container ships is also continuing to improve, according to new data from analytics firm Sea-Intelligence. March also marked the third consecutive month of declines in average delays for container ships. The move lower in inflation could be sudden as a result, especially for durable goods, said Detrick. Still, he warned, it’s hard to tell if we’re seeing the light at the end of the tunnel – or an oncoming train.

Inflation is at a 40-year high, and Americans are feeling it.

A gallon of gas costs about double what it cost in January 2021. Home prices were up a whopping 19.8% year-over-year in February. And, in March, groceries cost 10% more than they did a year earlier.

Thankfully some analysts think that the burden could soon ease, and that we’ve reached an inflationary top.

This week, the Federal Reserve will meet and likely announce plans to raise interest rates, a tool used to combat rampant inflation. However, investors fear that accelerating the pace of interest rate hikes could drag the economy into recession.

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial, thinks it’s likely that inflation has already reached a peak on its own, and that the Fed could start to pull back on interest rates by the second half of the year.

The core personal consumption expenditures index, which the Federal Reserve closely watches to measure the price of goods and services, grew by 5.2% in March, excluding food and energy prices, coming in below economists’ expectations and falling on a monthly basis for the first time since October 2020.

Detrick points to three key economic indicators for that belief: a drop in used car prices, a lack of “sticky” inflation, and a relative easing in supply chain chaos (though China’s COVID-related shutdowns could put an end to that).

The chip shortage caused by supply chain kinks and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has made getting a new car very difficult, and the prices of used cars and trucks have correspondingly soared. In February, the price of a used car was up about 45% year-over-year, according to the Manheim Used Car Value Index. But it has since come down to about 25%. Two months of declines show that the prices of used cars, which make up 4% of the consumer price index, could finally be reverting back to pre-pandemic levels.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta breaks inflation into two categories: sticky and flexible. Sticky inflation is a basket of goods that tends to change more slowly and permanently in price, things like the cost of education, public transportation and motor vehicle insurance. Flexible inflation includes items that move up and down in cost more quickly: gas, clothing, milk and cheese.

During the stagflation of the 1970s, both sticky and flexible inflation grew. But so far sticky inflation has remained relatively flat compared to flexible inflation, a good sign that this could still be temporary.

Of course, it could take some time for sticky inflation to play catch up, but Detrick says he’s optimistic. Flexible inflation is like a rubber band, he said, you can stretch it pretty far and it will still snap back.

And though shutdowns in China could hurt the global supply chain, it does appear that problems are easing – at least for now. If businesses can easily obtain more supplies, the prices of materials go down and consumers will not be charged as much for goods and services, said Detrick.

Shipping rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles, New York and Rotterdam are down 28% on average from the peak last year, according to LPL Financial’s data. Schedule reliability for container ships is also continuing to improve, according to new data from analytics firm Sea-Intelligence. March also marked the third consecutive month of declines in average delays for container ships.

The move lower in inflation could be sudden as a result, especially for durable goods, said Detrick. Still, he warned, it’s hard to tell if we’re seeing the light at the end of the tunnel – or an oncoming train.

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